A surge in global demand for copper is reshaping the economic fortunes of Zambia, five years after it became Africa’s first sovereign default of the Covid-19 era.
Driven by expansion in artificial intelligence, renewable energy and defence industries, copper — essential for power grids, electric vehicles, data centres, solar panels and wind turbines — has become one of the world’s most sought-after commodities.
Billions in new investment
President Hakainde Hichilema says renewed investor confidence is transforming the sector. Speaking at the African Mining Indaba, he revealed that more than $12 billion has been invested in Zambia’s mining industry since 2022.
Zambia is Africa’s second-largest copper producer after the Democratic Republic of Congo and ranks eighth globally. Copper contributes about 15% of the country’s GDP and more than 70% of export earnings.
Output rose eight percent last year to over 890,000 metric tons, with the government targeting a tripling of production within a decade. The International Monetary Fund projects economic growth above 5% over the next two years, placing Zambia among Africa’s stronger performers.
Global powers compete
The renewed copper rush has drawn intense geopolitical interest. China remains a dominant force in Zambia’s mining industry, holding major stakes in key operations.
Canada’s First Quantum Minerals is Zambia’s largest corporate taxpayer, while investors from India and Gulf states are expanding their presence.
The United States has also re-entered the sector after years of limited engagement. Washington recently unveiled a $12 billion “Project Vault” initiative to secure critical minerals and reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains, underscoring the strategic importance of copper.
Warnings over inequality and environment
Despite the economic upswing, concerns persist that the boom may not translate into broad-based prosperity.
According to the World Bank, more than 70% of Zambia’s 21 million people live in poverty. Analysts warn that without careful governance, the benefits of the copper surge could be concentrated among political and corporate elites.
Environmental risks also loom large. In February 2025, a tailings dam failure at a Chinese-owned mine near Kitwe released millions of litres of acidic waste into a tributary of the Kafue River, a key water source. Farmers have filed an $80 billion lawsuit over the incident.
Critics caution against a “pit-to-port” model, where raw copper is exported with minimal local processing, limiting value addition within Zambia.
As global demand accelerates, observers say Zambia stands at a crossroads: the copper boom could anchor long-term prosperity — or repeat a history in which mineral wealth enriches others while leaving lasting environmental and social costs at home.