The price of Brent crude oil has remained highly volatile as the Middle East conflict intensifies, with the international benchmark hovering near $109–$110 per barrel as of this week due to continuing military escalation and threats to regional energy infrastructure.
Tensions escalated sharply after Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field and related facilities in the Persian Gulf — the world’s largest natural gas field shared with Qatar — which both Tehran and Gulf partners condemned as a dangerous escalation.
In response, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has warned it may target oil and gas facilities across Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, raising fears of broader supply disruptions in one of the world’s most critical energy‑producing regions.
Iran has also confirmed that its own energy facilities near Asaluyeh were attacked, compounding the risks of production interruptions.
Supply Risks and Strait of Hormuz Disruptions
The ongoing conflict is disrupting crude and liquefied natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that typically handles roughly 20 % of global oil and gas shipments. Continued uncertainty over tanker traffic and facility security is adding a “risk premium” to crude prices.
Some market observers and traders have suggested that Brent could test $120 per barrel or more if threats to infrastructure and export routes persist.
Humanitarian and Economic Fallout
The conflict’s impact extends far beyond energy markets. The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that rising energy and shipping costs are threatening global humanitarian operations. WFP Deputy Executive Director Carl Skau said the rise in freight costs and fuel prices is slowing life‑saving deliveries and squeezing budgets, potentially pushing millions more into acute hunger, especially in import‑dependent regions in sub‑Saharan Africa and Asia.
Policy Responses
In an effort to ease pressure on global energy markets, the U.S. administration has moved to relax certain sanctions on Venezuelan oil, allowing U.S. companies, with limitations, to engage with Venezuela’s state‑owned oil company as part of efforts to boost supplies.