Southern Africa is facing the prospect of hotter-than-usual conditions over the coming months as a very strong El Niño event raises concerns about extreme heat and shifting weather patterns into 2027.
The United Nations World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that the global climate is entering an era of increasingly severe extremes, with its latest forecast pointing to warmer conditions across southern Africa between November 2026 and January 2027.
The warning comes as global temperatures continue to break records. The WMO State of the Climate Update 2026 shows that the past 12 years have been the warmest on record, with the global average surface temperature between January and September reaching 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo described the state of the climate as “off the charts”, warning that the combination of El Niño and rising global temperatures was exposing millions of people to dangerous conditions.
“Hundreds of millions of people this year have been exposed to unbearable extreme heat, whilst the catastrophic ice and rock collapse and flash floods in Nepal highlighted the compound risks facing communities in fragile, warming high-mountain terrain,” she said.
The seasonal forecast, developed with contributions from several international partners, including the South African Weather Service, also points to significant shifts in rainfall patterns across the world.
The latest warning is linked to exceptional warming in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific Ocean, where Climate Reanalyzer data from the Climate Change Institute shows temperatures reaching 3.4°C above normal.
Saulo explained that El Niño does not create additional heat but releases heat stored in the ocean.
“El Niño doesn’t add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured. There is simply more heat available to release,” she said.
The forecast places renewed attention on southern Africa’s vulnerability to extreme weather, particularly as communities and key sectors such as agriculture and water supply face the effects of rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.