Rebel group M23, which stunned the region by capturing Goma and Bukavu earlier this year, has suffered significant battlefield reversals in recent weeks as Congolese forces and their allies launch counteroffensives around Lake Kivu.
The Tutsi-led insurgency, widely accused of receiving Rwandan military support, seized the strategic Kavumu airport serving Bukavu in February and appeared poised to dominate the mineral-rich east. But in the past fortnight, government troops and pro-Kinshasa Wazalendo militias have recaptured villages in Masisi and Walungu territories, using drones and ground assaults to push back M23 lines.
“After months of retreat, the FARDC is finally fighting back with coordination,” said a senior Congolese military source in Goma. “We have retaken Bitsi, Mashango, and parts of Nzibira. The rebels are on the defensive.”
M23 spokesmen confirmed redeployments but insisted the losses were tactical. “We control the cities and the mines,” said Lt. Col. Willy Ngoma. “These skirmishes change nothing.”
The rebels have governed Goma and Bukavu since early 2025, introducing tax reforms and public clean-ups while facing allegations of summary executions and recruitment of child soldiers. Coltan and gold smuggling from Rubaya and other seized mines is estimated to generate up to $1 million monthly for the group.
Breakthrough in Doha
In a major diplomatic development, the Congolese government and M23 signed a framework peace agreement in Qatar on Friday, marking the first direct engagement since Kinshasa branded the rebels “terrorists.”
The deal, brokered with U.S. and Qatari mediation, commits both sides to ceasefire verification and sets the stage for full negotiations. A joint monitoring team held its inaugural meeting on 10 November.
President Félix Tshisekedi, speaking from Kinshasa after skipping the African Union summit, welcomed the step but warned: “This is not amnesty. Accountability for atrocities remains non-negotiable.”
Rwanda, repeatedly accused by the UN and Western powers of deploying troops alongside M23, denies direct involvement. A separate U.S.-backed economic pact signed with Kinshasa last week aims to reduce regional tensions.
Humanitarian Catastrophe Deepens
The United Nations warned Friday that 350,000 people remain without shelter following the January–February offensives, with new displacements reported in Uvira and Rutshuru.
Hospitals in Bukavu are overwhelmed, markets shuttered, and aid convoys blocked by insecurity. A bomb attack on an M23 rally in the city in March killed several civilians, underscoring fragile rebel control.
International Forces Under Strain
The UN’s MONUSCO mission, with nearly 11,000 peacekeepers, has paused its planned withdrawal and is sheltering displaced officials and surrendered militias at its bases. South African and Burundian troops deployed under the SADC banner have suffered casualties but continue supporting Congolese operations.
Private military contractors hired by Kinshasa have largely withdrawn or surrendered since the fall of Goma.
Outlook
Analysts say the Doha framework offers the best chance for de-escalation since the 2009 peace accord that gave M23 its name. But with over 100 armed groups still active and Rwanda–Congo mistrust at historic levels, many fear the truce could collapse.
“M23 wants legitimacy and integration,” said Jason Stearns of the Congo Research Group. “Kinshasa wants them disarmed. Until those contradictions are resolved, the east will burn.”
For now, the guns have not fallen silent—but for the first time in years, a path to dialogue exists.
Reporting from Goma and Bukavu; additional sources: UN OCHA, Reuters, AFP