South Africa’s economy grew by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, marking its fourth consecutive quarter of expansion and surpassing pre-COVID levels at R1.187 trillion (2015 prices). This modest rebound, driven by mining, agriculture, and trade, contrasts with the continent’s more robust annual projections amid global headwinds like trade tensions and inflation.
Africa’s average real GDP growth is forecasted at 4.2% for full-year 2025, up from 3.3% in 2024, per the African Development Bank (AfDB). Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) is expected to hit 4.5%, while Southern Africa’s regional growth lags at 2.2%, heavily influenced by South Africa’s subdued performance. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) aligns closely, projecting continental growth of 4.1%.
South Africa’s annualized growth for 2025 is projected at just 0.8%, placing it among the slower performers and below the continental average. This reflects structural challenges like energy constraints and fiscal pressures, despite Q3 gains. In comparison:
| Country/Region | 2025 Annual GDP Growth Projection (%) | Key Drivers/Notes |
|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 0.8 | Mining rebound; below regional average; Q3 q/q: +0.5% |
| Nigeria | 3.98 (Q3 y/y actual) | Services-led; rebased economy; projected full-year ~3.7% |
| Egypt | ~3.6 (North Africa avg.) | Suez Canal, tourism; second-largest GDP at $347B |
| Ethiopia | 7.1 | Infrastructure, agriculture; among top fast-growers |
| Rwanda | 7.2 | Services, manufacturing; exceeds 7% poverty-reduction threshold |
| East Africa | 5.9 | Fastest region; led by Ethiopia, Tanzania |
| Africa Average | 4.2 | Reforms, weaker USD boosting exports; 21 countries >5% |
Smaller economies like Burundi (+58.9% cumulative 2023-25) and South Sudan (24.3%) show explosive growth from low bases, often tied to recovery and resources. South Africa’s larger, diversified base yields steadier but slower expansion, underscoring the need for deeper reforms to match high performers and leverage the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) for intra-continental boosts.