The Trump administration’s latest trade move could reshape the export relationship between the United States and two African economies, putting billions of dollars in preferential trade access at risk and raising fresh questions about the future of US-Africa commercial relations.
South Africa and Rwanda are facing the prospect of losing access to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a US trade programme that allows eligible sub-Saharan African countries to export thousands of products to the American market without paying standard import duties.
The proposed termination, scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2027, follows a decision by President Donald Trump to withdraw the two countries from the programme after an eligibility review by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).
The development is particularly significant for South Africa, which exported approximately $1.7 billion worth of goods to the US under AGOA in 2025, making it the programme’s largest beneficiary.
South Africa’s export advantage faces a major test
For South Africa, the potential loss of AGOA benefits goes beyond diplomatic tensions with Washington. It puts an established export relationship at risk.
The country’s automotive, agricultural, clothing and manufacturing industries have benefited from preferential access to American buyers.
Without the programme, affected exporters could face higher tariffs, potentially making South African products less competitive against goods from countries that continue to enjoy preferential access.
Pretoria has been attempting to prevent that outcome.
Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau previously confirmed that the government had submitted proposals addressing American concerns and remained willing to negotiate with Washington.
However, the latest announcement suggests that South Africa’s trade relationship with the US is entering a more difficult phase.
Washington is linking trade access to political and security concerns
The Trump administration’s decision also demonstrates how Washington is using AGOA eligibility requirements to assess broader economic and political relationships with African governments.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the annual review found that South Africa and Rwanda were engaging in practices inconsistent with the programme’s eligibility criteria.
For South Africa, the administration highlighted barriers to American trade and investment, corruption, and national security and foreign policy concerns.
Rwanda faces additional scrutiny over the rule of law, political pluralism, internationally recognised workers’ rights and human rights.
The USTR also identified trade and investment barriers and concerns involving US security and foreign policy interests.
Greer said the administration wanted African partners to take the necessary steps to satisfy AGOA’s requirements, leaving room for engagement before the proposed termination date.
Rwanda faces another setback in US trade relations
Rwanda’s position is complicated by its previous experience with AGOA restrictions.
In 2018, Washington suspended duty-free treatment for Rwandan apparel exports after Kigali restricted imports of used clothing from the United States.
The latest proposed termination would extend the restrictions beyond the apparel dispute, reflecting a broader set of concerns raised by the Trump administration.
For Rwandan exporters, losing AGOA eligibility could increase the cost of accessing American customers and weaken the country’s preferential trade position.
What happens to US-Africa trade after AGOA?
Established in 2000, AGOA provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the US market for more than 1,800 products.
The programme was extended through December 31, 2026, following Trump’s signature on a one-year reauthorisation in February.
The proposed removal of South Africa and Rwanda does not mean that commercial relations between the countries and the United States will end.
Instead, businesses in both countries could lose tariff advantages that have helped their products compete in the American market.
The broader concern for African exporters is whether access to major international markets will increasingly depend on satisfying political, diplomatic and security conditions alongside traditional trade requirements.
With the proposed January 2027 deadline approaching, South Africa and Rwanda face a critical period of negotiations as they attempt to protect their commercial interests in one of the world’s largest consumer markets.