Millions of Americans are heading to the polls on Tuesday, 3 November, for the 2026 US midterm elections, with the results set to determine control of Congress and provide an important indication of public sentiment towards President Donald Trump.
The elections come at a challenging time for Trump’s Republican Party, as concerns over the rising cost of living, fuel prices and the ongoing war with Iran feature prominently in voters’ minds.
With two years remaining in his presidency, Trump has campaigned extensively across the country, urging supporters to turn out and vote for Republican candidates.
During a final campaign appearance at Washington DC’s Reflecting Pool on Monday, Trump acknowledged the challenges facing his party, saying Republicans had given the elections a strong effort.
However, the economic climate has become a major concern for voters. Food and fuel prices have increased, while inflation has risen from 3% when Trump took office to 3.7%, according to figures cited in the BBC report.
The price of diesel has also climbed sharply, reaching a reported record high of $6.52 per gallon in September, compared with $3.75 before the war with Iran began in February.
These pressures have raised concerns among Republicans about their prospects in traditionally conservative states, including Kansas, Texas and Ohio.
Political analysts say the level of Republican campaign spending in states previously considered safe for the party suggests growing concern about the competitiveness of several races.
Despite Trump’s declining approval ratings, however, a Democratic victory is not guaranteed.
Pre-election polling cited by the BBC put Trump’s approval rating at around 38%, while the Democratic Party’s positive rating stood at 29%. The figures suggest that dissatisfaction with the president does not necessarily translate into support for the opposition.
Some Republican voters have expressed frustration with the administration’s handling of the economy and foreign policy but remain reluctant to support Democratic candidates because of differences over conservative and religious values.
Control of Congress at stake
The main battle centres on control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Democrats are widely viewed as having an opportunity to gain control of the House, which would give them greater power to scrutinise the Trump administration, investigate its actions and potentially block parts of its legislative agenda.
The Senate contest is expected to be more difficult. Thirty-five seats are being contested, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure control. If they lose the Michigan seat they currently hold, they would need five additional seats.
Key Senate contests include races in Michigan, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, Alaska and North Carolina.
The results could shape the final two years of Trump’s presidency, particularly if Democrats gain control of either chamber of Congress.
A test ahead of the 2028 presidential election
Beyond determining the balance of power in Washington, the midterms are also expected to provide important lessons for both parties ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
Democrats will be assessing whether they can broaden their appeal in traditionally Republican areas, while Republicans will be looking at the extent to which Trump’s influence continues to shape voter behaviour.
The results will also test whether economic concerns are strong enough to shift support in states that backed Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
As Americans cast their ballots, the outcome will offer an indication of how voters judge the president’s performance and what they want from the country’s political leadership over the next two years.