On Monday, a significant wave of Iran-backed Iraqi fighters crossed into Syria, aimed at bolstering the government’s efforts against a resurgent rebel faction that recently seized the strategic city of Aleppo. This marks a pivotal moment in the ongoing Syrian conflict, as Lebanon’s Hezbollah group, despite its close ties to Iran, has reportedly decided against joining the fray for now.
The Iranian-led coalition of militia groups has proven to be a vital asset to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since the onset of the civil war in 2011. Their coordinated actions, with the backing of Russian air support, have been crucial in helping pro-government forces regain territory and suppress opposition. However, the recent advances by rebels, most notably last week’s capture of Aleppo, pose an unprecedented challenge to this coalition, which currently finds itself stretched thin.
The swift takeover of Aleppo – once the largest city in Syria and a symbol of government authority – has been labelled the most significant success for anti-Assad fighters in years. With government forces having recaptured control of the city from rebel hands in 2016, the fall of Aleppo signifies a dramatic shift in the balance of power within the war-torn nation.
Hadi al-Bahra, the head of Syria’s main opposition group abroad, attributed the rebels’ rapid success to the distractions faced by Hezbollah and other Iran-backed groups, who have been preoccupied with ongoing hostilities against Israel. He noted that while preparations for an assault on Aleppo had begun as early as last year, the recent conflict in Gaza had delayed these plans.
The broader context of this alarming situation highlights that Syria’s civil war had reached a relative stalemate since 2020, with Assad solidifying control over most regions, while various opposition factions maintained their strongholds in pockets across the country. Turkish-backed forces currently occupy a strip along the northern border, while U.S.-backed Kurdish forces maintain a presence in the northeast, complicating the landscape of a now fractious conflict.
As the rebel forces celebrate their hard-fought gains, the strategic stakes in Syria are higher than ever. The interplay of regional powers, rising tensions in the broader Middle East, and the intrinsic challenges faced by the Assad regime present a formidable puzzle that may reshape not only Syria’s future, but the fate of its people who have suffered through years of violence and instability.