South Africa could face a hotter-than-normal summer and mounting economic pressure as a strengthening El Niño weather pattern takes hold, according to the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
The UN agency has warned that the developing climate phenomenon is likely to bring above-average temperatures across much of the world, with southern Africa identified as one of the regions expected to experience prolonged heat and an increased risk of drought.
The WMO’s latest outlook, released on 31 July, shows a high probability of above-average temperatures across the African continent during the August to September 2026 period, while southern Africa is expected to remain one of the global hotspots.
The African Development Bank has cautioned that a strong El Niño could cost African economies between US$10 billion and US$20 billion through drought, crop failures, water shortages and disruptions to livelihoods.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the climate pattern is already intensifying the effects of global warming.
“El Niño is not just on our doorstep – it is inside the house and turning up the heat.”
He warned that the event is adding to “a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas”.
According to the WMO, El Niño typically alters global rainfall patterns, bringing drier conditions to southern Africa while increasing rainfall in regions including the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, Southern Europe, western North America south of 45°N, and southeastern South America.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo urged governments to use the advance warning to prepare for the potential impacts.
“This El Niño developing against the backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures provides governments and communities with a window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold,” she said.
Scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are monitoring sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, with the latest data showing anomalies approaching 1°C since July 2026. The warming trend suggests the current El Niño could strengthen further in the coming months, raising the likelihood of another exceptionally hot summer for South Africa.