The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed an 80% chance of El Niño conditions emerging between June and August 2026.
The WMO suggests that this could be the strongest El Niño ever recorded and is likely to drive extreme weather events across the globe for the remainder of 2026.
“This update matters because El Niño is a major driver of global weather and climate patterns. The footprint of an El Niño extends far beyond its origins in the Pacific Ocean, impacting agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains and livelihoods across entire regions,” said the WMO Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo.
She reiterated the significance of early detection in this regard.
“We can prepare much better for El Niño thanks to science and the investments made by many countries to strengthen preparedness. Together with weather agencies worldwide, the WMO’s role in the coming months will involve monitoring conditions to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies and other climate-sensitive sectors. Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and communities,” the WMO chief added.
The global El Niño alert comes amid an Orange Level 8 warning for disruptive rainfall issued by the South African Weather Service (SAWS), affecting the Eastern Cape and Western Cape provinces.
Other provinces have been warned to brace themselves for a series of intense cold fronts accompanied by strong winds and snowfall in high-lying areas.
Citizens have been advised to heed the weather warning and exercise extreme caution, particularly when travelling, to avoid potential hazards.
Meanwhile, the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, has urged world leaders to strengthen disaster response measures to prevent loss of life during this period.
