South Africa’s debt-to-GDP ratio is now expected to peak at a lower level and decline below 70% a year earlier than previously projected, following revisions to the country’s official economic figures.
National Treasury said gross loan debt is now estimated to have peaked at 74.6% of GDP in the 2025/26 financial year, compared with the previous estimate of 78.4% published in the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement.
The revised outlook also indicates that the debt-to-GDP ratio could fall below 70% by 2032/33, a year earlier than initially forecast.
The changes follow Statistics South Africa’s GDP rebasing and benchmarking exercise, which increased the measured size of the economy by 5.1% in the 2025/26 financial year.
Treasury’s revised projections also show an improvement in the main budget deficit, which is now expected to reach 3.5% of GDP in the current financial year, down from the previous estimate of 3.7%.
Meanwhile, the country’s primary budget surplus is projected to reach 1.6% of GDP this financial year, increasing to 2.8% by 2029/30.
However, National Treasury has cautioned against interpreting the improved figures as evidence of additional revenue, reduced government spending or an actual decline in debt.
Instead, the improved ratios largely reflect the fact that government debt and the budget deficit are now measured against a larger economy following the GDP revisions.
Treasury confirmed that the underlying revenue, expenditure and debt estimates remain unchanged.
A more comprehensive update of the country’s fiscal outlook is expected in the 2027 Budget.
The revised figures therefore reflect a change in how South Africa’s economy and debt burden are measured, rather than a reduction in the government’s actual borrowing obligations.