The ANC’s fall from grace
For the first time since the dawn of democracy, the African National Congress (ANC) is expected to lose its parliamentary majority—a significant political earthquake feared by many. Poll predictions had hinted at a decline below the symbolic 50% threshold, yet the ANC’s anticipated drop to 40% reveals a staggering level of disenchantment among voters.
The erosion of public trust in the ANC stems from a confluence of debilitating factors. Years shrouded in corruption scandals, an ongoing energy crisis leading to pervasive outages, chronic water shortages, and an ailing economy have compounded the electorate’s dissatisfaction with a party that once embodied hope and liberation. This historic setback forces the ANC into unprecedented uncharted territory: the necessity to form a coalition government—a scenario inconceivable during its prime.
A government of national unity
The resulting coalition government represents an eclectic mix of ideological opponents, bringing together the ANC, the Democratic Alliance (DA), the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), Freedom Front Plus, Build One South Africa (BOSA), the Patriotic Alliance, and the United Democratic Movement (UDM). This uneasy alliance has ignited outrage among traditional ANC supporters, many of whom view it as a betrayal of the liberation movement’s foundational principles, especially given its partnership with parties that have historical ties to the apartheid regime.
Zuma’s revenge: the birth of the MK Party
The ANC’s decline was exacerbated by an internal schism following the emergence of a breakaway party led by former President Jacob Zuma—the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, a name reminiscent of the ANC’s erstwhile armed wing. The MK Party’s ability to capture 14% of the national vote, underpinned by support from disillusioned ANC voters, was a significant blow to its parent party. Zuma’s vocal criticism of sitting ANC leader Cyril Ramaphosa further exacerbated fissures within the party, allowing the MK Party to siphon off crucial votes.
A fractured political landscape
The elections in 2024 introduced an unprecedented fragmentation in South Africa’s political arena, with a staggering 52 parties vying for representation. Voter turnout slumped to an historic low of 58.6%, a troubling indicator of widespread disillusionment with the political elite. While the DA retained its position as the official opposition, with 21.8% of the vote, it fell short of its ambitious target of 30%. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) similarly experienced losses, garnering just 9% amid increasing competition from populist entities like the MK Party.
The MK Party’s calls for radical reform and policies—such as the nationalisation of mines and land expropriation—resonated with voters eager for substantial change, compounding the allure of populist alternatives in an increasingly volatile landscape.
A nation at a crossroads
The election results signify more than just the ANC’s decline; they herald the end of an era characterised by single-party dominance and usher in a complex realm of coalition politics. A notable 65% of the electoral vote went to parties embodying leftist ideologies—representing a persistent appetite among the electorate for ideologies resonant of historical liberation struggles. Many first-time voters and “born frees” have embraced the rallying cry of “2024 is our 1994,” expressing their yearning for liberation from misgovernance and unfulfilled promises.
As the ANC grapples with its diminished influence within a coalition framework, the future trajectory of South African politics hangs in the balance. The events of 2024 are destined to be etched in history, either as the dawn of genuine change or merely a continuation of disillusionment. The world will be watching to see whether this new political landscape can deliver the transformative changes so urgently sought by the voters.